Module BUSI46O15: Scenario Thinking (Block Taught)

Department: Business School (Business)

BUSI46O15: Scenario Thinking (Block Taught)

Tied To

• N1D417: Business Administration (distance learning) (for students entering before January 2010) (see Postgraduate Handbook 2011-2012 for details)
• N1D617: Business Administration [Finance] (distance learning) (for students entering before January 2010) (see Postgraduate Handbook 2011-2012 for details)
• N1DR17: Business Administration (Finance) (Distance Learning) (for students entering between January - September 2010) (see Postgraduate Handbook 2011-2012 for details)
• N1DU17: Business Administration (Distance Learning) (for students entering between January - September 2010) (see Postgraduate Handbook 2011-2012 for details)
• N1KR17: Business Administration (Finance) (Global)
• N1KS17: Business Administration (Global)

Pre-requisites

Corequisites

Excluded Combinations

Aims

• To explore methods and approaches for anticipating the future
• To understand and evaluate how human judgment is modelled in scenario method
• To examine the strategic and operational implications of planning with scenarios

Content

• The core “intuitive logics“ scenario methodology
• Modelling judgment: overcoming framing bias and overconfidence
• Stakeholder analysis
• Evaluating the performance of options against scenarios
• Constructing a range of extreme futures
• Diagnosing whether the organizational context is appropriate for a scenario-based intervention
• Evaluating developed scenarios
• Scenario thinking versus decision analysis as ways of making decisions in the face of uncertainty about the future

Learning Outcomes

• By the end of the module, students should have:
• A critical understanding of the nature and principal concepts of scenario method
• A grounded understanding of the “intuitive logics“ scenario method and its augmentations.
• A critical appreciation of decision making using scenarios

• By the end of the module, students should:
• Be able to use the “intuitive logics“ method to create scenarios
• Be able to develop a range of more extreme scenarios using augmentation of the core “intuitive logics“ method
• Be able to analyse and evaluate decision options against scenarios

• Effective written communication skills
• Planning, organising and time management skills
• Problem solving and analytical skills
• The ability to use initiative
• Advanced skills in the interpretation of data
• Advanced computer literacy skills

Modes of Teaching, Learning and Assessment and how these contribute to the learning outcomes of the module

• Learning outcomes will be met through a combination of taught input, groupwork, case studies and discussion, supported by guided reading and specially-written self-study material.
• The summative assessment of the module, by case-study based written assignment, is designed to test the acquisition and application of knowledge and critical understanding, and skills of application and interpretation within the business context.

Teaching Methods and Learning Hours

Summative Assessment

Formative Assessment

Group-based discussions and case study exercises.